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Fifth, the opportunities are modest. Any of these actors could complicate the situation further. They would instantly become martyrs, opposition in Russia to Putin would become ever more difficult and it would give the president carte blanche at home and abroad. When we do, Russia will claim it threw us out. In the Balkans the Kremlin has been arming the Bosnian Serbs , in Afghanistan it has been allegedly arming the Taliban. But let us be honest with ourselves, we are in danger of being seen to act now because we are reacting to a tweet. Putin wants us to act because in Syria he and Iran are strong, the US and its allies weak. Bombing the Assad regime makes ethical sense, but I have seen no evidence to show it makes strategic or practical sense.
The dangers are profound. We will have to leave anyway. Success lies in recognising the difference. But Assad will continue to kill his own people using different means, such as barrel bombs. All but one have gone unpunished, and that punishment changed little. In eastern Europe, Russia is aiming for conventional dominance, and in the rest of Europe for missile dominance and tactical nuclear dominance. However, serving in military campaigns, as I have done in Afghanistan and Iraq, one sees both the utility and the futility of force. In the Balkans the Kremlin has been arming the Bosnian Serbs , in Afghanistan it has been allegedly arming the Taliban. Even if we get through the next few weeks without actual conflict between Russia and the west, the new cold war will have become considerably hotter for the next few years. They are masters of information and subversive warfare. To paraphrase the great Chinese military thinker Sun Tzu, war without strategy is noise before defeat. We need to understand Russian warfare and act to defend ourselves. There is a theory that we are being led into a trap. It is not impossible that the Kremlin would welcome the deaths of Russian soldiers. Any of these actors could complicate the situation further. They are despicable weapons designed to spread fear. There is a chance of war now with Russia. Bombing would not change that basic fact. Putin wants us to act because in Syria he and Iran are strong, the US and its allies weak. US, UK and French forces in Syria are not there at the invitation of the Assad regime, but to defeat Isis, which has been largely done. Second, the Douma attack was the 34th recorded use of chemical weapons in Syria. There is an unstable dynamic between Saudi Arabia and Iran, which have backed different sides in Syria. Fifth, the opportunities are modest. Expect threats of war — and even nuclear war — from Russia if bombing takes place. Assad, backed by Russia and Iran, will order the US and its allies out. Instead, we are in danger of stumbling into using lethal force without thinking through the consequences.
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